Biggs Numbers are Small


I've seen it mentioned a few times that Tyler Biggs is nearly a point a game player in the OHL, and this is being used as proof that he could be more than a third liner in the NHL.

As the eternal pessimist I thought I'd breakdown his first ten games to see in what situation he's putting up these points. The results aren't that encouraging. I will note that this is his first ten games in a new league and a lot can change, but at a first glance it's probably best to come to terms with Biggs as a third line prospect sooner rather than later.



Date
Opponent
H/A
G
A
Result
Opp. Record
Notes
14-OctLondonHome01W5-35-3-0-0
13-OctBellevilleAway00L4-16-2-1-0
12-OctBarrieHome00L4-38-2-0-0
8-OctBellevilleHome00W4-36-2-1-0
5-OctKingstonHome11W6-45-3-0-0(empty net goal)
30-SepBramptonHome21W7-43-4-1-2(game winner, both goals against backup goalie)
29-SepBellevilleAway10W5-26-2-1-0(empty net goal)
28-SepPeterboroughHome10W5-12-5-2-1
21-SepSudburyAway01L4-25-5-0-0
20-SepPeterboroughAway00W5-22-5-2-1

A few notes on those points:
2 Empty Net Goals
3 goals, 1 assist against teams that are a combined 5-9-3-3
0 non empty net goals, 3 assists against teams that are .500 or better

I'll continue to track Biggs numbers throughout the season, and look for improvement. The reason why it's worth noting the record of the team that Biggs puts up points against is that the CHL does not have the same parity of teams that you'd see in the NHL, or even the AHL. A point is not necessarily a point as teams like Peterborough and Brampton will in no way be competitive this season and will be padding stats for numerous OHLers.

Update: I remember in the long long ago before Tyler Biggs was drafted I did a profile on him as a potential target for the Leafs, please note who I thought was a fair comparable for him.

Biggs has taken quite a fall in the draft standings, ranked fifth among North American skaters at the midterm by Central Scouting, he has fallen sharply to 22nd. When you factor in European Skaters into the draft order Biggs projects to be available when the Leafs take the stage... 
Central Scouting currently lists Biggs at 6'2, and 210lbs, so it's worth noting that his size lends itself to throwing around junior players, but is pretty average for the NHL. Biggs will be challenging himself against older competition next year at University of Miami-Ohio, but there is a chance his physical game may have the volume turned down. It is also unlikely that his lack of discipline will play well in the NCAA but it makes it the ideal learning environment to balance out his game. 
Scoring wise, after beginning the season with a lot of hype, Biggs finished up rather snakebitten. Only scoring 17 goals in the USHL followed by a 2 goal performance at the U-18 is a cause for concern. Playing hockey as a college freshman next season doesn't inspire confidence that he'll find that skill again anytime soon. His big shot and his willingness to establish himself in front of the net are positives, but without the hockey sense to back it up he might just be Chad Kilger 2.0

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