I am basing that assumption off of their regular season record that has seen the Leafs go 12-22-4 against teams that are currently holding a playoff position, for a winning percentage of 36.8%. Only the Blue Jackets and the Islanders have a worse record against teams currently sitting in the playoffs. In contrast the Leafs have the 10th best record in the league when it comes to beating up on non-playoff teams with a 67.2% success rate.
I've included my tables below showing the results from around the league. Playoff teams listed in bold are the teams that were holding a playoff spot before the beginning of games on March 8th, 2012 and the numbers listed include all results from the games on the 8th with the exception of WPG/VAN.
Overall Winning %
| EAST | GP | % | WEST | GP | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 66 | 68.9% | STL | 68 | 68.4% |
| PIT | 66 | 63.6% | VAN | 67 | 67.2% |
| BOS | 66 | 62.9% | DET | 67 | 66.4% |
| PHI | 66 | 62.9% | NAS | 67 | 63.4% |
| NJ | 67 | 60.4% | CHI | 68 | 58.1% |
| OTT | 69 | 58.0% | DAL | 68 | 58.1% |
| FLA | 66 | 56.1% | SJ | 66 | 56.1% |
| WPG | 67 | 53.7% | PHX | 68 | 55.9% |
| WAS | 67 | 53.7% | LA | 67 | 55.2% |
| BUF | 68 | 51.5% | CGY | 67 | 53.7% |
| TB | 67 | 51.5% | COL | 69 | 53.6% |
| TOR | 67 | 50.0% | ANA | 68 | 50.0% |
| NYI | 67 | 48.5% | MIN | 68 | 50.0% |
| CAR | 67 | 48.5% | EDM | 67 | 43.3% |
| MTL | 68 | 45.6% | CLB | 67 | 38.1% |
Winning % against playoff teams
| EAST | GP | % | WEST | GP | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 36 | 66.7% | DET | 35 | 67.1% |
| BOS | 32 | 62.5% | STL | 36 | 66.7% |
| PIT | 31 | 54.8% | VAN | 32 | 60.9% |
| PHI | 36 | 54.2% | LA | 39 | 59.0% |
| NJ | 35 | 52.9% | NAS | 33 | 56.1% |
| WAS | 38 | 50.0% | PHX | 35 | 55.7% |
| OTT | 33 | 50.0% | CHI | 35 | 52.8% |
| MTL | 38 | 47.4% | MIN | 36 | 52.8% |
| TB | 39 | 46.2% | SJ | 33 | 50.0% |
| BUF | 39 | 44.9% | COL | 38 | 47.4% |
| FLA | 33 | 43.9% | DAL | 33 | 47.0% |
| CAR | 36 | 43.1% | ANA | 38 | 46.1% |
| WPG | 32 | 40.6% | EDM | 37 | 43.2% |
| TOR | 38 | 36.8% | CGY | 36 | 43.1% |
| NYI | 40 | 36.3% | CLB | 40 | 31.3% |
Winning % against non-playoff teams
| EAST | GP | % | WEST | GP | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 30 | 73.3% | VAN | 35 | 72.9% |
| NYR | 30 | 71.7% | NAS | 34 | 70.6% |
| PIT | 35 | 71.4% | STL | 32 | 70.3% |
| NJ | 32 | 68.8% | DAL | 35 | 68.6% |
| FLA | 33 | 68.2% | CGY | 31 | 66.1% |
| TOR | 29 | 67.2% | DET | 32 | 65.6% |
| NYI | 27 | 66.7% | CHI | 33 | 63.6% |
| WPG | 35 | 65.7% | SJ | 33 | 62.1% |
| OTT | 36 | 65.3% | COL | 31 | 61.3% |
| BOS | 34 | 63.2% | PHX | 33 | 56.1% |
| BUF | 29 | 60.3% | ANA | 30 | 55.0% |
| TB | 28 | 58.9% | LA | 28 | 50.0% |
| WAS | 29 | 58.6% | CLB | 27 | 48.1% |
| CAR | 31 | 54.8% | MIN | 32 | 46.9% |
| MTL | 30 | 43.3% | EDM | 30 | 43.3% |
A few things worth noting on this:
- Montreal, Detroit, Phoenix, Minnesota, and Los Angeles are the teams that do better against playoff teams as opposed to non-playoff teams
- The Jets and Stars have taken advantage of friendly schedules and easy wins to put them in the playoff picture. Neither shows much promise against tough competition
- Red Wings, Canucks, Blues, Bruins and Rangers have over 60% winning percentage no matter whether the team is in the playoffs or not. All 5 are also the only teams with a 60% or greater winning percentage against playoff teams. Not surprising that they are the favourites going into the playoffs
Given the choice right now of
(A) snapping a pathetic playoff drought and likely getting swept in the first round or
(B) drafting in the top 10 and having the chance to pick a young impact forward
I'm feeling confident that (B) is the right decision and should help the Leafs long term, though it's not overly comforting right now.
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